Ida Update

Ida becomes extratropical - all warnings have been discontinued.

AT 900 AM CST.. .ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

At 9 am, the center of what was Ida was located in south Baldwin County and moving NE.


This will probably be the last update on this storm system.



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Ida - early morning update

The center of what is left of Ida was in Mobile Bay at 6 am this morning. Ida has now become mostly a low pressure system and rain has ended in south Alabama area and is moving out of east Mississippi.

When Ida made landfall on Dauphin Island this morning she had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Wind speed of 28 mph has been reported in Meridian early Tuesday morning.

At 6 a.m., Alabama Power Co. has 8,000 outages statewide; 1,519 - BHM; 872 - Western; 796 - Anniston; 1,249 - Montgomery; 275 - SE area; 3,329 - Mobile

Midnight update

This is the midnight update on Ida's position and expected tracking. Possible high winds around 40 mph possible in East Mississippi and West Alabama from 2 am to 4 am

IDA HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10
MPH.... A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD.

Ida has slowed down in forward speed

This new update from NHC indicates winds near or above 39 mph could be expecteded in East Mississippi/West Alabama from 2am - 4am Tuesday morning. Ida has slowed her forward speed form 18 mph to 13 mph as she nears the coastline.

Ida is still expected to make an easterly turn once she makes landfall.

The location and timing of Ida's landfall will have little significance since the tropical storm force winds cover a large area and most of the heavier rainfall is already spreading onshore.

Rainfall update

Ida - landfall tonight

Ida is expected to make landfall near Mobile late tonight/ early Tuesday morning. The latest reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ida remains just below hurricane strength. A convective burst that began a few hours ago has temporarily halted the weakening trend.

Strong winds cover a large area of the Gulf of Mexico and rainbands
are already moving onshore well ahead of the center

Ida is expected to turn eastward after landfall.

Update: With the quick eastward turn late tonight, East Mississippi and
West Alabama should not experience any wind problems.

Ida on radar

1:20 pm Mobile radar

Monday 9 am update

Notices the west shift and lower wind speed in this update.

HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE.

Rain update

Projected total rainfall over the next the next 3 days.

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Ida - Monday morning updates

Ida, as expected, is now weakening due to cooler waters and wind shear. I expect more changes with the next NHC update.

Ida - news report

Hurricane Ida roared toward the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, where important oil fields are located, after killing 124 people and leaving at least another 60 missing in floods and mudslides in El Salvador.

Sunday night's graphic update

Wind chart
Red - 73mph and higher
Yellow - 58mph and higher
Blue - 39mph and higher

Do NOT focus on any one point. Actual landfall tracking usually shifts prior to and after landfall.

What to expect

From Jackson NWS (subject to change if Ida's project path is changed)

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE IDA. SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OVER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MERIDIAN TO MAGEE TO MONTICELLO LINE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA BRINGING A LONG
DURATION OF STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA. WHILE OFF AND ON PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MORE STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS LONG DURATION
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AS WELL AS IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

From Birmingham NWS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY.

SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND AN
EXTENSION OR UPGRADE OF THIS ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSAR

Ida - Sunday evening update

Ida the rain maker

Graphics is the total projected rainfall for the next 5 days.

(click on graphic for enlarged version)


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Hurricane watch issued

Timing timing timing

As with all tropical systems in the Gulf, timing is everything. Notices the current projections. I'm sure there will be more changes over the next 24-36 hours.

Sunday morning update

More updates early afternoon.